Steve Nimmons

Steve is head of Enterprise Architecture Consulting in the UK, a member of the Atos Scientific Community and global track leader for Open Innovation. A Certified European Engineer, Chartered Engineer, Chartered Fellow of the British Computer Society, Fellow of the Royal Institution, Royal Society of Arts, Linnean Society, Society of Antiquaries of Scotland, Institute for the Management of Information Systems and Institution of Analysts and Programmers he is a Freeman of London, an Honorary Citizen of North Carolina and a Commissioned Kentucky Colonel. Steve describes himself as a “polymath, lapsang souchong ‘addict’ and a pattern seeker”

Open Innovation and the Ecosystem of Everything

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Towards Increased Openness

Innovation in the 21st century is increasingly open, collaborative, multi-disciplinary and global. There are erosion factors which are providing increasing challenges for traditional R&D functions to retain knowledge. Of these mobility of people, loss of technological hegemony, increasing sophistication of university research schemes, knowledge leak, pervasive communities of users practicing their own innovation and availability of venture capital are key factors.

Closed Innovation is being challenged; Joy’s law states:

No matter who you are, most of the smartest people work for someone else.

Tapping into the knowledge that sits outside of the enterprise and having a process to cross-fertilise internal innovation strategy is therefore important and increasingly prevalent. read more

Vanguard of the Age of Reason

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The Age of Enlightenment

One of my favourite periods in history is that of the 18th Century Enlightenment, a great outpouring of intellectual and scientific achievement. My heroes are the vanguard philosophers, mathematicians and scientists who challenged norms, received wisdom and at times wilful ignorance. Bacon, Descartes, Spinoza and Hobbes as forerunners, Francis Hutcheson, Adam Smith and David Hume, Newton, Diderot, Leibniz, Locke, Kant and Montesquieu and other influential thinkers across Scotland, England, France, Germany, Russia and Poland. read more

Patterns, Fragility and the Black Swan

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“A rare bird in the lands, and very like a black swan” [Juvenal]

Flying pigs are mythical (or so we assume), but if flying pigs were suddenly discovered they would be ‘Black Swans’. In 16th century London Juvenal’s phrase was a common expression of impossibility (i.e. ‘you may as well see a black swan’) indicating that the existence of such was considered very much in the same vein as flying pigs in our time. A Dutch expedition led by Willem de Vlamingh discovered Black Swans in Western Australia in 1697 and so ‘destroyed’ a previously held certainty. I have only ever seen white swans, therefore all swans must be white was therefore an understandable, yet poor conclusion.

Black Swans are outlier events, impossibly difficult to predict (except of course with hindsight). They may be positive or negative events and are invariably surprising. If you cast your mind back over the past 50 years some outlier events which would have seemed practically incompressible in the early part of the 20th century: Kennedy put a Man on the Moon, the invention of the Internet changed business and communications, ubiquity of the mobile phone, collapse of Soviet Union, factoring the human genome, nanotechnology, the full of regimes across North Africa, credit and banking crisis, the rise and (and potentially imminent fall) of the Euro zone, discovery of insidious diseases hopping between species. Some of these events were Black Swans, some happened with the predictability of an incompetent pilot’s crash. Predictable catastrophe in fragile systems is not a Black Swan; hence the 2008 credit crisis should not be so classified.

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Thinking Sideways, Why Horizontal is the new Vertical

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In his article “How to win when you don’t know the rules” Chief Engineer Darren Austin highlighted the pressures being introduced to enterprises by phenomena such as ‘Bring your Own’ (BYO) and how constant revolution in the consumer space accelerates the need to embrace yet control adoption and new business models. The importance of cloud, paralleled with the need for business to identify its core data and maintain ownership of information is something with which I am in agreement. The discipline of identifying core enterprise data and ensuring its adequate governance should of course come under the auspices of Enterprise Architecture. The essence of the enterprise is certainly a great deal less rigid than it was 10-years ago. I see a number of core trends driving the change, namely: sophistication of consumer technologies and consumers themselves, the rise of Web2.0 and the psychology shift in the ‘democratisation of everything’. People rarely want to do what they are told and really only tow the line if a) there is a large penalty for non-compliance or b) the prescribed practices make sense, are efficient and make lives easier.  Harnessing the creativity that freedom manifests is a really smart move!

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Understanding the Potential of Neuromarketing

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Neuromarketing extends traditional marketing techniques through the application of neuroscience, leveraging advances in greater understanding of brain function and developments in brain scanning techniques such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and electroencephalography (EEG). The ability to “measure the brain while it is operating” and interpret emotional response and “engagement” provides new opportunity in measuring the effectiveness of many aspects of product design and advertising.

Eye tracking, pupillometers, Galvanic skin response (as used in polygraph devices) and other peripheral nervous system measures have sought to provide insight into ‘deep brain’ activity and emotional response to stimuli (in advertising and other contexts) for some years. The ability to monitor (be that by fMRI or other means) deep brain function, comprehend (with “reasonable certainty”) the cause and effect of positive and negative emotional response would provide an unprecedented insight into the subconscious and provide a revolutionary path to product design and market testing.

Neuromarketing cannot however dismiss standardisation requirements, regulation and ethical application. It suffers from “over claiming”, has significant cost implications, scalability challenges and interpretation ‘difficulties’ based on gaps in our current understanding of neural function (in part I refer to the limbic system). Cost and scalability of using fMRI are clearly issues as it requires expensive and highly specialised equipment and facilitates analysis of one “subject” at a time. Conducting sample testing on significant volume of participants is therefore impractical. Some have suggested that this simply requires highly focused subject choice (such as key market influencers); although “plausible” this accepts a fundamental limitation and loses a great deal of “statistical potential”. EEG is significantly cheaper and portable and benefits from higher temporal resolution, but (with scalp EEG) brain structures such as the amygdala or hippocampus may not be clearly visible. Peripheral nervous system measurements have at times meandered into pseudo-science although there are some promising advances. read more

40 years in the making – Will the Memristor change computing?

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The “discovery” of electronics’ Missing Link was reported in the journal Nature in April 2008 by researchers from Hewlett Packard. The memristor is the fourth type of electronic component (resistors, capacitors and inductors being the other three). The existence of such a component had been predicted by Professor Leon Chua (Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences Department at University of California, Berkeley) in his paper “Memristor – the missing circuit element”, published in the IEEE Transactions on Circuit Theory, September 1971. Chua, regarded as the “father of nonlinear circuit theory” mathematically hypothesised the existence of a “resistor with memory”.

Hewlett Packard Senior Fellow Stanley Williams (HP Labs in Palo Alto) led efforts which resulted in the fabrication of the memristor (albeit by ‘accident’ in the process of other nano-electronic experimentation), an event widely reported at the end of April 2008. The memristance effect is amplified at nano scale adding greatly to the requirement to understand and harness its properties in such circuit design. Almost two years to the day, HP Labs published findings that memristors could also perform logic computation. The paper “Memristive switches enable ‘stateful’ logic operations via material implication” has stimulated renewed discussion about the potential of memristors (not only in context of memory chips and storage), but also in newly discovered ability to perform computation in chips where data is stored.

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Social Search and the Integrity of the Social Graph

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The “Elemental Web” was a connection of machines, then a connection of sites, now it is a complex amalgam awash with traditional links and millions of ‘inter-personal’ connections defined by the Social Graph. But what exactly is the Social Graph, is it open to manipulation and how might this affect experimentation in Social Search? How shall we seek to vanquish the Social Chimera?

First let me define the Social Graph and the fundamentals of Social Search. The former is the connection of people and the defining relationships. It is built on new algorithms such as the Social Graph API as well as “older” technologies such as XFN and FOAF. It puts the ‘human face on linking’. Its emergence is driven by the uptake of Social Platforms (blogs, microblogs, Social Networks) the platforms on which the Social Graph is expressed and lives. Every participant has their own Social Graph (to whom and how they are connected), and the superset is a connectivity mesh of immense complexity (around the world in Six Degrees). Social Search seeks to leverage information within the Social Graph to provide improved relevance of results. Simplistically, we are influenced by our connections, therefore recommendations from trusted ‘friends and digital acquaintances’ have an obvious relevance and appeal. Trust, relevance and measurable contribution are key areas on which to focus. For an excellent introduction to the topic I recommend “Connected: The Surprising Power of Our Social Networks and How They Shape Our Lives” by Dr. Nicholas Christakis and Dr James Fowler, as well as “Trust Agents” by Chris Brogan and Julien Smith.

A range of start-ups (including some notable failures) have been active in Social Search experimentation (Sproose, Mahalo, Jumper 2.0, Wikia Search, Qitera, Scour, Wink, Eurekster, Baynote, Delver, OneRiot and SideStripe). Of ‘more’ interest however are ongoing trails in Google Labs…

Travelling back through the annals of time we recall a “Web of Machines” an interconnected backbone and fabric, the foundations of the modern Internet. Search Engines arose, linking strategies developed; soon links between sites became tradable commodities. Reciprocal linking remains a popular SEO (search engine optimisation) strategy (you link to my domain, I link to yours). A standard Webmaster to Webmaster behaviour was soon under significant ‘manipulation’ (aka gaming) by link spammers and link farms. This targeted link popularity at a domain level, but the ‘take home’ is that once search algorithms are (at least partially) understood, and there is benefit in higher placement in search engine results, then ‘algorithmic gaming’ is ever present.

The Social Web has given rise to a new form of linking, inter-personal links within the Social Graph. “You follow me, I follow you” is a personification of ‘old school’ reciprocal linking. The domain is no longer the ‘back link’; it is the ‘personal’ connection in the Social Graph. It could be argued that this is just good social graces, I’m interested in you, and therefore you should express and reciprocate the same interest. As with link farms and link spamming in the “pre-Social Web”, we are of course seeing a volume of similar misbehaviour affecting the Social Graph across today’s Social Platforms.

My concern and what I want to highlight in this piece is the potential to skew emerging Social Search algorithms, and how they must account for ‘hyper-connected gaming’. Naturally what motivates this (mis)behaviour is ‘short cutting’, in other words rather than build up a following organically through ‘service to the connected community’, you simply ‘snowball’ a following using automated techniques such as ‘mass following’. Twitter is the ultimate sandpit. If not fuelled by it, it could certainly be argued that it is well lubricated with snake oil. This is not in itself a criticism of Twitter’s model, but rather recognition that auto-pilot users (often “mavens” or “work at home” marketing specialists) are ‘swamping’ the platform with all manner of affiliate schemes which they promote through mass communication and mass following techniques. This is not what I classify as pro-social behaviour.

The great joy of the Social Web of course is that people and behaviours can be ignored and dismissed. Un-friend, un-follow, block are all readily available choices. Surprisingly however, research shows that we rarely do much housekeeping on our online networks and hence the Social Graph is additive rather than truly reflective.

With that précis of how I view some online social or really anti-social behaviour, I return to my concern of how the Social Graph is open to manipulation. I’ve written on numerous occasions about proactive Social Networking and how I feel this is often beneficial.

Connections extend possibilities, but there is a value to those connections and indeed how we behave in the social context of those connections, be that by social graces (etiquette) or through positive contribution to group and community dynamics. I very much view proactive or speculative networking on sites like Twitter to be very useful. Indeed my metaphor for such is a “tap on the shoulder”; Twitter being particularly valuable in this regard due to its non-invasive nature.

I am currently participating in the Social Search experiment on Google Labs, and it is through this that we must seek to vanquish the Social Chimera’s influence. The principle of the experiment is “more easily find relevant blogs, reviews and other public content from your social circle”. The social circle is determined by the Social Graph, for the purposes of this experiment being links and connections found within Google Profile. In my case this points to all of my Social Site presences such as LinkedIn, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube. You begin to see the potential, the more I am connected within the ‘graph of others’ the more likely that my recommendations and interests show up in the Social Search results of others (establishment of motive and opportunity). Manipulation of this centrality might therefore yield increased influence or (heaven forbid) opportunity to drive monetisation through questionable affiliate schemes. This presents problems; new motivations to drive hyper-connectivity (now inter-personal), a need to filter the Social Graph and the Social Search results and clear them of the behaviours associated with such manipulation.

The good news is that Google is astute and experienced in recognising, accounting for and penalising algorithmic gaming. But all is not simple. There are some very pro-social characters heavily involved in Social Media that have 100,000+ followers on Twitter. Many also follow the same number. Does this denote egalitarianism and utility, or something less admirable? It certainly does not provide transparency (in the link alone) to the utility and nature of that relationship to all 100,000 connections. We need to look therefore at relationship reinforcement in the Social Graph. If two people are tagged in a photograph they are “close by definition”, multiple conversations, multiple connections across disparate social sites also reinforce connections. But this still lacks sophistication as it negates (or dilutes) the role of the influencer. Such relationships might be more characteristically ‘one-way’, but none the less I might be more interested in the Social Search result of an influencer rather than a weak connection. It is also difficult to ascertain current “levels of manipulation” and how people within those networks should be accounted for (or discounted). Twitter seems endemically littered with ‘friend collectors’, fuelled by an insatiable (and mistaken) hunger for collection of worthless and highly contrived influence. So this presents the dilemma of how to filter the signal from the noise. This epitomises what I believe to be a principle challenge of Social Search.

What is noise, what is the signal and how is this algorithmically quantified across a vast array of differing Social Graphs, how do we qualify and ‘level’ the meaning and importance of relationships?

Beyond some of the basic reinforcement checks I described earlier, I suggest semantic analysis, sentiment analysis, measuring utility in  relationships and contributions are of primary appeal for research and development. Personal control is also important. It could be argued that this is intrinsic in controlling personal Social Graphs at their source, but this involves restraint and is very difficult to visualise (it is also not a great deal of fun and constrains the potential of proactive networking). Control over the search results and how these feed through the Social Graph to the results of others (i.e. privacy control) also needs to be thought through. This could lead to the creation of additional Inference Channels, which we may prefer remained ‘hidden’.

I encourage you to engage in the Social Search experiment, at the same time ruminating on your perception of social participation on the Web. The motivations of others naturally need to be questioned, but drive your networking on the basis of pro-social activity. Share, contribute, grow, but be cognisant of the Social Graph, its emerging centrality to Social Search and a need to preserve its integrity. Equally, follow with interest further debate concerning algorithmic tuning to ensure social results are not “manipulated” by hyper-connectors. Ponder also Google’s strategy in Social Networking.

Create profiles, connect with others, collaborate and share: Google Profiles, GMail, Google Reader, Google Groups, Google Side Wiki, Google Talk, YouTube, Picasa, Google Wave, Social Search and so forth. There is no direct landing page or dedicated Portal (with the exception of Orkut), but ‘all of the above’ sounds a lot like a decentralised, feature rich Social Networking platform! Could it be argued that Google’s lack of explicit “overarching site” is leading to more natural social interaction and a purer emergent Social Graph from those actions?

I might typically end with a rhetorical “will Google be the ‘glue that binds’?”, but certainly it already is. It is the ultimate in “decentralised” Social Networking, Social Search being a tantalising addition if utility and purity can be appropriately delivered. Page Rank established a mechanism for quantifying importance and authority of sites. Will “Page Rank for People” emerge as a ‘solution’ to Social Search manipulation?

The Problem with Privacy and Social Networks

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“Privacy is an onion” (patent pending maxim); it is situational, temporal and multi-dimensional. Perhaps said axiom should be recast as a ‘genetically modified onion’.

Perusing articles on Facebook privacy control changes from a well-known security company, there is the revelation that “no private information should be on the Internet”. A wise statement for an information security purist, but what constitutes ‘private information’, to what degree is it fluid and are the controls within Social Networks sufficient to allow us to restrict access in the ways we demand / require? What are the ‘sociological norms’, and what of ‘super-social’ libertines (such as I) that have exceeded Dunbar’s Number by a magnitude of 700%?

How does information aggregation affect risk and perception of privacy control – are we at risk through inference channels in the Social Network? How do we perceive and manage trust? With rigour, paranoia, neutrality; is it earned, easily lost. How do we convey this and ensure our privacy is being managed accordingly? This brief set of questions hints at the complexity: cultural and emotional; qualitative; psychological; behavioural that guides our experiences online. Are Social Networks really equipped to meet sophisticated information management demands from a savvy user-base? How will they augment existing controls to facilitate virtual world technologies and context aware devices that would provide further “locational” (excuse the Social Computing neologism) and situational information?

Today’s Social Network (I take Facebook as a pervasive example) is a walled-garden (in general terms). Most users create a ‘private’ profile and control access by granting or denying friend requests, which can then (by and large) see profile information, pictures, status updates and other friend connections (there are nuances, but for brevity I generalise). My ‘bug bear’ with this model is a) poor visualisation of what effect the setting of privacy attributes has b) it’s not more walls we need, it’s more gardens! I shall elaborate on my latter ethereal viewpoint. Going back to trust, you may trust someone implicitly in the office, but don’t want to entrust them with private information in a personal Social Network. Trust and privacy are also really inter-woven concepts. There are also gradations of trust. For example I might trust someone based on their profession (doctor, airline pilot), but there is a limitation in the trust.

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